|(Correct prediction posted to tallyroom.com.au . Notice date.)|
UNDECIDED SEAT: Prahran (Lib, 4.7%)
SUMMARY: Contest between Clem Newton-Brown (Lib) and either Neil Pharaoh (ALP) or Sam Hibbins (Green)
RESULT: Hibbins (Green) wins seat - awaiting formal declaration
This article followed the post-count in the undecided seat of Prahran, won by the Greens (subject to official confirmation) on preferences from third on primaries after eleven days of counting, including a recount.
The original (after reworking) article appears at the bottom of the post with updates scrolling to the top. However, there was a surprise in the prepoll count - Labor did much better than projected on within electorate prepolls, which I'm told they targeted heavily - so much of the original modelling for questions 1 and 2 soon became irrelevant. The modelling for question 3 turned out to be slightly pessimistic for the Greens compared to the reality.
The results of the three key questions, after recounting, are being reported unofficially as:
1. Does Pharaoh stay ahead of Hibbins? Hibbins knocked out Pharaoh by 31 votes.
2. If the final count is Newton-Brown vs Pharaoh, who wins? Newton-Brown led by 25 based on the quick throw. This margin remains to be confirmed (and is presently irrelevant.)
3. If the final count is Newton-Brown vs Hibbins, who wins? Hibbins has won by 277 votes thus apparently winning the seat.
Assuming these results are now officially confirmed, Hibbins has won the seat for now. It is possible that there will be a court challenge, but even if there is one Hibbins will be able to sit in parliament until such time as a court might decide otherwise.
The result is a major success for the Greens, who have unseated a Liberal in a single-seat electorate for the first time in any Australian state or federally, who have won both lower house seats they targeted, and who will hold more than one seat in an Australian parliament elected under a single-seat system for the first time. Indeed, they have only previously won four seats in single-seat elections (one of them twice) and two of those wins were in by-elections.