Saturday, November 25, 2017

Queensland 2017 Live

Labor appears to have won the election, but majority status is touch and go.

Approx Labor 43 LNP 38 KAP 2 ONP 1 IND 1 Unclear 8 (including one ALP vs Green)

(From base of Labor 49 LNP 42 KAP 2:)
Labor Gains from LNP: Redlands, Aspley
Very likely Labor/Green Gain from LNP: Maiwar
LNP gains from Labor: Bundaberg and probably Burdekin (notional ALP)
Very likely ONP gain from Labor: Mirani
Likely IND gain from LNP: Noosa

Complicated: Hinchinbrook (LNP), Mundingburra (ALP - Labor favoured), Thuringowa (ALP - Labor favoured), Macalister (ALP - Labor favoured), Rockhampton (ALP)

Unclear ALP vs LNP: Pumicestone (ALP leads in ALP seat), Gaven (ALP leads in LNP seat)



(Cook being treated as probable Labor win - note, I'll say more about this on Sunday, Bonney as probable LNP win)

MIDNIGHT WRAP:  I'll put up some postcount threads tomorrow, but for now a summary and some comments on where we're at after a fascinating night.  The primary votes have come out about where the pollsters expected, the 2PP has apparently done likewise, but Labor's performance in seat terms has been a few seats shy of what it should be. Not too much has been delivered in the south-east where swings have been quite uneven and swings to Labor have often landed in safe seats, while regional seats have delivered a few losses and left Labor in danger in some others.  We've also seen strong performances by independents and by Katters Australian Party, despite or because of neither getting any attention to speak of during the campaign.  It may in the end be that not that many seats change hands anywhere.

The seats I have in significant doubt (though some others are not quite nailed down) are:

* Pumicestone and Gaven, which are standard ALP vs LNP contests and both close.
* Maiwar, where there is a battle between the Greens and Labor to presumably replace Scott Emerson
* Macalister, where the doubt over Labor's win is Hetty Johnston perhaps getting into second.  However I expect during the post-count that the Liberal lead over Johnston should stretch enough to rule this out.
* Thuringowa, where Labor have a strong lead over One Nation who will presumably be put into second ahead of One Nation by KAP preferences.  If the LNP are second, we don't know what happens here.
Rockhampton, where Strelow (Ind) should win if she makes the final two, but the flow of preferences between One Nation and the LNP might well prevent this and save the seat for Labor.
* Mundingburra, where Labor beat the LNP if those are the final two, and One Nation need a massive flow of KAP preferences to unsettle that.  The performance of Labor on KAP and One Nation preferences suggests that they would probably win anyway, so I think Labor has this one.

* And last and best, Hinchinbrook, where we have no real 2PP figures (the ABC is showing estimates).  The KAP candidate is currently third, and should win if he stays there and does not fall to fourth behind Labor.

So I have Labor on 43, plus three likely, plus a couple of tossups and the odd stray who-knows, making it lineball whether they have won a majority or not.  What appears clear is that Labor have not won the decisive majority they were seeking in order to offer stability and a buffer against the MP malfunctions that so frequently marred their just-completed term.

12:15: The ABC has switched off its computer projection which had the LNP easily winning Bonney (currently lineball on actual votes) and Caloundra (currently Labor ahead on actual votes).

10:45 So many twists and turns tonight - William Bowe has mentioned Pumicestone has some nasty stuff on the way for Labor on prepolls.

10:18 A lot of firming up in Labor's position in the last half hour.  I've taken Cook out of the complicated pile.  I've also given Mirani to One Nation.

9:45 I've been busy adding up seats to try to get exact totals right, but there is not a lot of new information in the last half hour.

9:18 Rockhampton is not so clear for Strelow because ONP and LNP preferences may cause one of these to get into second and knock Strelow out.  I've put it in the Complicated pile.

8:43 I have 42 seats that I think are reasonably solid (some not quite nailed down) for Labor.  They are on the wire in Pumicestone vs the LNP and Maiwar vs the Greens.  There are then six seats (listed above in "complicated") that are a mess and will not be callable tonight.

8:23 I think One Nation are still well placed in Mirani but it's the only one they're looking reasonably good in.

8:14 Burdekin (notional Labor) is a messy three-cornered contest. The number of messy Labor-held seats is quite large.  Mundingburra is looking better, but KAP and One Nation are still lurking there, so it's not clear it is Labor vs LNP (which Labor wins).

8:12 Macalister is also indie trouble for Labor with Hetty Johnston just behind the LNP.  The seat is being counted Labor vs LNP which is useless.

8:09 I think Labor are in trouble with Margaret Strelow the independent in Rockhampton.  She is second on primaries and Labor's primary is low.

8:05 It's interesting how well KAP are doing.  They're in the mix in some of the Townsville area seats where they may even plausibly win seats on preferences from third or even conceivably fourth.  Some very long cutups to come.  Also, One Nation do not have a single clear seat gain.

7:58 Labor have recovered in Maryborough, which looked like an ALP gain.

7:52 Seeing quite a turnaround with a few Labor gains dropping off, so the overall picture is getting much messier.

7:48 One Nation still second in Mirani by 6%.  As things are they could well win the seat, but will the LNP catch up in the final booths?

7:46 We are seeing a lot of large regional swing variations within booths so that seats are being projected with large leads and then turning around.

7:42 I've put Mundingburra in the messy category because while the LNP seem to be getting a 2PP booth swing it's unclear they are second with both ONP and KAP threatening there.

7:39 This is looking very sticky for the LNP.  They are struggling in a large number of seats and are not themselves so far taking realistic numbers of seats from Labor.  Labor are strongly placed.

7:36 ABC claiming Greens didn't make a serious effort in Maiwar.  Rubbish!

7:35 AEC are counting Mirani as Labor vs LNP but One Nation are currently second and may well win on LNP preferences if they can stay there.

7:28 Burdekin now very close.  I've put a provisional list of changes up the top, treating the notionals as Labor-held.

7:22 Logan being counted as ALP vs LNP but presently the LNP are third, which if it continues would hand Labor the seat.

7:17 In Maiwar, LNP incumbent Scott Emerson is in a lot of trouble but there is a major fight between Labor and the Greens on the votes available so far, with both about 30%.

7:10 Labor also in danger from One Nation in Maryborough where the LNP seem to be third.

7:07 Bundaberg and Burdekin are a couple where Labor seem to be in trouble but they are also currently on target for several pickups in the south-east, including Chatsworth.

7:01 Callide is being counted LNP vs KAP but KAP are fourth, so ignore it.  On early numbers it is LNP vs One Nation with LNP winning.

6:59 Labor currently third in Burdekin, which was notionally theirs.

6:52 Brief delay there, back on board.

6:37 In Caloundra, the ABC have Labor with almost the swing required, but these appear to be estimates, not real numbers.

6:33 (Qld time) Note that the ECQ is counting Lockyer as LNP vs One Nation.  On early figures Labor is third by some distance, but these are smaller booths so it remains to be seen how much this will close up.


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Good evening and welcome to my live comments for the Queensland election.  I'll be trying to fill in the gaps left by the usual ABC coverage to keep an eye on not just the overall picture but also unusual and interesting seats, seats where we don't know who the top two are and so on.

At the top of the page once things get going I will have a general overview which is likely to include a list of seats that appear to have been gained by someone or other (these will not be final calls).

To start with we have a Galaxy exit poll with Labor up 52-48 and familiar looking primaries of ALP 37 LNP 35 ON 13 Green 9 KAP 2 (51 seats to Labor).  As this exit poll is by the same pollster that's done most of the polling for this election, let's see how it scrubs up through the night.  In 2015 the exit poll predicted the shock Labor win but overestimated the margin of it.

I'm still getting set up here (that's a euphemism for "actually having dinner") so more serious commentary will start around 7:30.

We've also had a Sky News ReachTEL released with Lab 36.7%; LNP 32.7%; Green 9.4%; PHON 12.2%; KAP 3.0%; Other 6.0% for a 52-48 result to Labor.  As far as I can tell this actually isn't an exit poll, which is ... odd.  Investigating.

13 comments:

  1. Hi Kevin,
    I believe ONP and LNP are swapping preferences between themselves in Rockhampton. So the race for second may be tight between
    Margaret Strelow and the ONP candidate.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Cook is another seat to add to the 'complicated' pile.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kevin, I might be more confident about Pumicestone than Gaven at this point?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gaven has got worse again. Labor leads in both on raw figures and projection but I've put Gaven back into unclear.

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  4. Also doesn't look like Bonney is still in doubt (and I don't think you're counting it as such in your totals?).

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  5. Ta, I'll change Bonney to list it as a presumed LNP win. However, that's on the ABC's projection and some caution is required because the actual preferences are about tied.

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  6. Isn't Cairns a "complicated" seat? Doesn't Rob Pyne have enough to work with to preference snowball to victory? He's 2nd on the Greens ticket and I'd imagine him doing well enough with PHON voters to overtake the LNP, who'd preference him over Labor

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The problem for Pyne is that One Nation preferenced the LNP second in his seat. Not all the Green preferences will flow to him so to get into second he would need to get substantially more One Nation preferences than the LNP despite One Nation preferencing the LNP ahead of him. This seems very unlikely though in the absence of scrutineering data I wouldn't write off such a thing completely.

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  7. Caloundra looks to me one of the most marginal at the moment

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The ABC was projecting the LNP to make large gains in Caloundra from their current position but I am unsure on what basis as yet. Keeping an eye on it in case the ABC projection was, for whatever reason, wrong.

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    2. Prepoll in Caloundra hasn't been counted to 2PP yet. When it is the LNP 2PP will increase and they will take the lead.

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  8. My guess: ALP 46 / LNP 40 / ONE 1 / KAT 3 / IND 1 / DOU 2
    In Doubt: Caloundra, Rockhampton (ALP or IND)
    Assuming:
    NLP wins Bonney, Whitsunday, Clayfield, Bundaberg, Burdekin, Hervey Bay, Pumicestone
    ALP wins Cook, Townsville, Mundingburra, Maiwar, Gaven, Thuringowa, Macalister
    ONP wins Mirani
    KAP wins Hinchinbrook

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. See what you mean re pre-poll 2PP in Caloundra. It has come in at 59 to 41 and accounts for almost 1/3 of all ballots counted to date. Postal is coming in at 64-36 so far.

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